The 1% Solution (or “Who wants to be a Billionaire?”)
Sherlock Holmes was a cocaine addict.
When business was slow, he would inject himself with a mixture of 7% cocaine and 93% saline solution. (Fortunately, he had his friend Dr.Watson, who eventually cured him of this pernicious habit.)
Some Alternative Search Engines (ASE or “Alts”) are addicted, too. But given that not even Ask.com has a 7% share of the Internet search market, many of them would be quite content (ecstatic, even) with a mere 1% of market share.
Who wants to be a Billionaire?
Don Dodge, writing as recently as this past May, did the math; concluding that, “Each 1% of market share is worth at least $1 Billion in market cap.” One Billion Dollars. With a “B.” Now, while not every ASE on the recent Top 100 Alternative Search Engines list has market share penetration as their primary objective (they may want to be acquired, they may want to remain independent; they may just want to be the “Best of Breed;” i.e. the best Video search engine or the best Health search engine.), I have yet to talk to a single one that would turn up their nose at a cool $1,000,000,000.00 dollars.
So, you may wonder, do any of the “Top 100 Alts,” the best of the best, have a 1% share of the Search space? Well, in February, SearchTheWeb2.0 answered that question (based upon that month’s Top 100 list.).
And the winner is…
In February (it has since shifted, of course), taking an average of comScore, NetRatings and Hitwise figures, Google had 52% of the market, Yahoo 25%, MSN 10%, AOL and Ask, 4% each, leaving 5% (actually 4.47%) for “all others.”
Who’s on first?
“Well,” you ask, “don’t keep us in suspense, did any of the Alts have a 1% share within that 4.47%?” No. First of all, none of them came immediately after AOL and Ask.com; digg, del.icio.us, Local.com, A9, and Rollyo did, hogging a full 2.37% of that 4.47%, leaving only 2.10% for the entire Top 100. 
Now here’s a shocker - out of all the tremendous, incalculable time, ingenuity, and effort put into each and every one of the Top 100 Alts, the one that had the greatest share was arguably the one that is least respected by its peers: Ms. Dewey (an MSN joke, really). But still, her cut was a “whopping” .036% of total searches. Not 1%, not one-tenth of 1%, but less than 4 one-hundredths of 1%!
You do the math.
So, where does this leave us? In rough terms, the remaining 99 Alternative Search Engines, ChaCha, Quintura, Zuula, IceRocket, GigaBlast, Exalead, et al, when all 99 of them are combined, they comprise essentially 2% of all searches. Now, before anyone reaches for the ‘comment’ button, this is not a PhD thesis. My Top 100 list back then did not include all alternative search engines; some very good ASE were not on it. And, by the same token, neither were the other 900 that we track at AltSearchEngines.
But it’s entirely possible that an Alt will eventually capture 1% of market share. I have talked to several recently who have told me that they fully expect to. It appears to me that someone would have to obtain that 1% out of the the remaining slice of the pie, resulting, for the sake of argument, that that would represent half of the roughly 2% alloted to all other search engines in the known universe.
“Just believe”
Let’s assume that each and every one of the Top 100 Alts, pick any 100 you want, (they don’t have to be my 100), carries within it the potential to capture 1% of total searches. I believe they do. After all, that’s what the “Alternative” in Alternative Search Engines stands for: to qualify for the Top 100, an Alt should demonstrate, in one particular area, superiority to the major search engines (usually Google). Video search, Discovery, Visualization, Blog search, Social search, Clustering, Semantic search, Recommendation engines, Continuous Search, and on and on.
AltSearchEngines exists because we believe, we truly believe, that the Alts are so innovative that they could - that they should - be able to attract 1% of actual searchers; they’re that good. So let’s go ahead and posit that; let’s call it our alternative universe. In our alternate universe, each of the best 100 ASE have persuaded 1% of the searchers to use their search engine. Maybe the Day without Google or SEL’s Google-Free Fridays convinced them to switch. 1% times 100 Alts, let’s see, that would be, carry the one, uh, 100%! (Ergo, there would be no major search engines.)
What’s behind door #58?
Remember, in this imaginary scenario, each ASE has achieved the goal of 1% market share. So, right where you are, close your eyes and picture 101 multi-colored doors, all in a row, 50 to your left, 50 to your right, and one directly in front of you. Now, you have a need to search, you believe the claim of the Alts; that they will serve you better. But there are 50 doors each way you look! Fifty! Right in front of you is a plain wooden door, white, and with a door knob that is well worn from an unfathomable number of turns; its the Google door. You know that if you go in there you’ll get a pretty good answer, and you’ll get it pretty damn fast. A no-brainer, right? Right.
Can Google be defeated? Isn’t that the question for 2007? Isn’t that all we hear about; the “next big thing,” the (fill in the blank) new search engine that will be the Google-killer. Third generation search. (Shoot, second generation search should have done it.) And yet Google gets larger every day.
How to lose the Search race.
This is pretty straightforward, so please stay with me. 1) I publish what I believe are the Top 100 non-major search engines. 2) Google or Yahoo! or Microsoft ends up buying one of these smaller search engines, or their patented technology, or offers their talent employment. Good-bye to a “Top 100″ Alt! Now there are 99 left, right? So I have to reach down to #101, one that did not make the final cut, and move it up to make the list 100 again.
Right back where we started!
What has just happened? The major search engine(s) are that much stronger, and the Alternative Search Engines are, by definition, one notch weaker. Repeat that cycle a dozen times, and it should take you right back to where we began. A handful of search engines with 95-98% market share, and 2% for all the rest. And here’s the kicker: why should 2008 be any different?
What’s your point? Do you even have one?
Yes, I do. But here is where I intend to leave it - for now. Because there’s a piece missing, the key actually, like the “key master” in the Matrix, or the cipher that turns a page of gibberish (this post?) into the plans for a secret submarine.
What do you think? You’ve probably seen the list of 100 Alternative Search Engines, can they supplant the major search engines? How? What would you suggest they do? (Or is it hopeless?) Let us hear from you.
